Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 867.146135 988.842604 1127.686831 1299.167328 1507.134555 1753.618685 2.071539e+03
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 691.023189 850.308341 1052.143093 1332.493826 1721.575348 2258.176672 3.084200e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 586.581877 752.815747 976.332296 1309.147662 1811.475189 2577.111179 3.913187e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 525.974534 698.747146 942.827438 1328.629135 1956.131718 3005.872217 5.079151e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 484.142195 662.289073 924.883823 1362.417986 2124.260267 3516.588801 6.631390e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 443.621193 621.257932 892.264867 1363.970920 2234.441431 3954.806725 8.279283e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 404.114453 576.521073 846.866677 1334.421149 2278.712692 4274.913646 9.851008e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 379.954896 552.582364 831.159466 1352.900807 2418.033071 4846.670007 1.253393e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 348.968866 514.430903 786.932407 1311.353154 2424.148081 5110.889504 1.450472e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 323.821992 483.425088 751.345275 1280.438092 2445.889600 5424.029507 1.696975e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 301.293492 454.800803 716.864827 1246.452456 2453.171870 5703.580828 1.963639e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 293.010357 449.450645 723.161897 1295.437658 2667.641640 6678.600006 2.696530e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 280.061648 436.264158 716.136728 1321.217240 2848.467973 7710.409599 3.735977e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 268.333115 424.505756 711.127157 1352.452725 3060.809060 9030.907282 5.458348e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 251.964314 402.814428 684.247160 1329.116178 3113.579456 9790.471225 7.075896e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 241.727199 391.425487 676.387266 1348.912132 3301.801098 11293.335565 1.058732e+05
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 233.802264 383.596903 674.731504 1383.406090 3550.262811 13349.737339 1.745538e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 223.583469 370.568418 660.891004 1384.988428 3692.670592 15038.978481 2.711753e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 211.583856 353.234546 636.287924 1354.834279 3715.918980 16088.634206 3.832334e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 204.545871 345.028577 630.443849 1373.691576 3928.017764 18675.189667 7.303825e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 193.373187 327.924929 603.650411 1331.297182 3892.282198 19485.255795 1.050093e+06
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 183.865671 313.564715 581.781558 1299.757831 3892.531446 20635.755436 1.673493e+06
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 174.837684 299.644644 559.821419 1265.091690 3871.179513 21632.253672 2.723348e+06